Retailers hope 2008 holidays don

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A week before the ’ presentz a program in San Ramon titled: “Bravre New World? The Fall of Consumer Confidence and EasyCredit – What’s Left in its retail professionals throughout the region offerr diverse views on the state of the industry. Christinwe Firstenberg, managing director of Oakland’s Metrovation Brokerage, will moderatd a panel discussion on retail expansion and contractiobin today’s market at the Oct. 10 event taking place at the SanRamon Marriott.
She said contraction trumps expansionthese days, but that economic travailsx have hit some retail segments much harder than “Some are still expanding, such as food who are far more resistant to recessionary and discounters,” Firstenberg said. “Target, and are definitelt not being hitas hard, but mall specialty tenants, for example, have been hit extraordinarily hard.” And when retailerx do open new they are being extraordinarilyt picky. “They are dissectinbg every little detail on thesdeexpansion deals, including fees charger by cities and the amountr of rent being paid.
If their doorss are not placed in the positiobnthey want, it can kill a deal,” she And there are plenty of retail projects beinh delayed because of the credit crunch, Firstenbergt said. “They are not able to get financing, especially the mid-sizec retail tenants and developers,” she said. “Thde amount of projects stalled now ispretty serious.” Vacancies in existing retail centers is also growing, Firstenberg and empty storefronts could be even more prevalentg by early 2009. “Some tenantsw are hanging on to see how the holidag seasonturns out, and they are watchint things very closely,” she said.
“There isn’t a broker or developert out there who has ever seen anything likethis Yeah, you could say we all are a littlde nervous.” Though some industry observers say it’zs an optimistic prediction, the National Retail Federation of Washington, D.C., has forecasty a 2.2 percent growth in saleas during the 2008 holiday shopping seasobn compared to last year, the lowest rate of growthg in six years. , a Ohio, retail management and market research firm, predicts a meageer 1.5 percent growth in sales, whichj would be the lowest ratesince 1991.
Things seem a bit brighter insid e the confines of sprawling in traditionally one of theBay Area’e busiest retail centers. Vacancies are few as it heads into the holiday shopping season and 19 new stores have openedf so far during 2007and 2008, though 14 of thosd occurred last year, according to Kim Trupiano, the mall’x marketing sponsorship director. She said amonh the few empty spaces are those left by the closurre ofthe Houlihan’s restaurant and a and the former may soon be replaced by anothe r eatery.
New stores added this fall includGodiva Chocolatier, Andersen Bakery and Crazyt 8, a lower-cost entry into the children’s apparell market by The of San Francisco, known for its moderatelyh expensive Gymboree kids’ clothingy chain. “We have the highest hopes for a goodholidat season,” Trupiano said, noting the mall as usual, add new twists to its elaborate centee court holiday decor display this year, adding a train reminiscenty of the 2004 movie, “The Polar Express.
” Trupiano said Sunvalle also plans to try to lure non-traditional “Black Friday” shoppers the frenetic shopping phenomenoj the day after Thanksgivingf – with a couple of dozen $250 mall gift cards beinfg given away at hourly drawings between 6 a.m. and “Our (foot) traffic numbers continue to be Trupiano said. “We have even felt that higher gas prices, for have helped us because more of our locapl shoppers are staying closer to On the other side of theEast Bay, economivc development officials in Union City expect that if the city’s salews tax revenue flags this year or next, it will most likely come in business-to-business retail sales instead of general “In our most recent sales tax report, we actuall had a modest overallo gain during the second quarter, compared to the same quarte last year,” said Mark Leonard, the city’s economifc and community development director, adding that Unionm City recorded 2007-2008 sales tax revenue of more than $6.
2 “We seem to be holdiny our own, despite the economic Leonard said the retail area that has slumpeds a bit this year has been home including the loss of a Linens ’n Thingsx store at the Union Landing shopping one of 120 stores shut down by the N.J., chain earlier this year.